If you were Bin Laden, what would your plans be right now?

I think I would see how long I could lay low (preferably in the middle of another country.) No further attacks for the near future. America has a reputation for a very short attention span, dicated by the media (for example, we can go to war in Kosovo over a civil war, while in the Congo's civil war more people are killed in a day than in the entire Kosovo conflict - it just isn't made a big deal by the media.) After things quiet down, if the military can't root Bin Laden out in the next couple of months, when the media realizes they've run out of stories, will America cool down and decide that maybe things are OK again? And they no longer have the stomach for what military operations may require? Yeah, the trade center is a constant reminder - but if were Bin Laden I'd bet on America's short attention span. I hope I'm wrong about our focus and constancy of purpose - but I think it's his best bet. The WORST thing he could do would be to continue to fan the flames with more attacks. (An aside - I just read that the leader of Egypt thinks the appropriate response to this should be a U.N. conference. Yeah - let's hijack some planes and crash them into the Pentagon and buildings filled with thousands of people and just HOPE the response isn't a U.N. conference.)

If I were him I'd try to go underground in another country. I wouldn't ask a government to harbor me. I'd just hide.

Even though his family's publicly cut him off, he may have relatives who will hide him secretly.

I'm really curious to see what the Taliban does. They may turn him over if they know where he is.

I'd smuggle myself in the droves exiting Afghanistan. It'll leave the Taliban high-and-dry while the rest of the world screams bloody murder.

Interesting thoughts. A buddy of mine thinks the fastest way to making bin Laden uncomfortable is to hit him in the wallet. Find out how to sap his funding, and suddenly terrorism isn't so easy to fund or as fun as it used to be. If this is done in conjunction with some of the things said on this board earlier, about destroying any government's willingness to harbor him, then it could have an effect.

That said, I think Jeff's on the right track...bin Laden is probably figuring out where he can hang out for a while and not make waves...though I heard there are rumors plans are in place for something to happen after the 'retaliation.' It is very true our attention spans are short, and that we have plenty of distractions to keep us once things get back to semi-normal.

Considering our government is debating, and will no doubt pass, new legislation broadening the powers of the current federal agencies responsible for tracking down terrorist I doubt our attention will die down quickly. Governments loving nothing more than being able to flex their judicial and military strengths when the people and law allow them to do so.

As for Osama hiding out, he has plenty of money. In fact, they are investigating allegations that Bin Laden was attempting to "short" the stock of the insurance company that insures the WTC days before the attack. Kind of questions his religious beliefs on capitalism, wouldn't you say?

It is also rumored that his family still supports him financially and lets face it.. Moms always love their sons no matter what they do... Weird.

Jeff

If I was Bin, I'd blow my remaining money on hookers, pot, and Britney Spears cd's... cuz you can't take it with you where he's going.

If I were bin Laden right now, I would be disemboweling myself with a steak knife as I cried myself to death over my horrible deeds.

If I was Bin Laden, and he actually did it, then I would probably feel quite secure in the fact that the last superpower who tried to go into Afghanistan gave up after 10 years. The US has a shorter attention span than that.
It's not a certainty that it was him yet.

You forget the fact that Russia's idea of a war has always been to dive headfirst into the conflict and not worry about a little thing called strategic planning.

There's a reason why Russia held the Germans off for so long towards the end, it wasn't the brainpower, it was the fact that they have a constant supply of fresh meat willing to die for their country.

I think, and I hope, America has learned from Vietnam and won't just rush into this without planning. Otherwise, we'll end up just like Russia.

Or there's the flipside, in which we give up the land fight and just constantly carpet-bomb Afghanistan until Kabul is toast.

If I was Osama bin Laden, I wouldn't have planned this horrible deed in the first place, so I'd be sitting at my PC playing Sid Meier's Alien Crossfire as a Fundamentalist and taking over virtual worlds instead.

--Dave

I don't think bin Laden was *directly* involved. I think he brokered the deal with some other group or groups. He's the kind of guy who never gets his hands dirty but will provide funds for projects that have a chance of being successful. He will hide. He will move to some out of the way spot. But I also think he's approved funding for many more attacks. The goal is to create absolute terror and chaos in America. As horrific as Tuesday's attacks were, they have not brought about the desired results. The attacks on Tuesday, I'm afraid, are just the beginning. I can't see this as a one-shot hit and run deal. They know America can be hurt.

Either way I can't imagine better folks to be the focus of our attention at the moment than the Taleban and bin Laden's organization. I can't imagine most Muslims thinking very highly of the representation of their faith that the Taleban puts on display. Hell, even most Afghanis barely tolerate the Taleban at this point but they're too intimidated to do anything about it based on what I've read. Started off as a 'law and order' bunch of religious vigilantes in a country torn by invasion, civil war and robber barons but became even worse than that which they supplanted.

Still, I agree with Anonymous that this probably won't be the last attack. There are many groups affiliated with bin Laden's clearinghouse organization and I wouldn't be at all surprised if cut off from it they didn't execute their own plans. It's not unlikely that our possible reactions were weighed well in advance and each move we make might be a trigger for a particular operation. All told, bin Laden probably can't wait for us to strike as he probably hopes that other radical Muslims in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia will revolt against the pro-US regimes in those countries.

Another big problem is that, aside from religous fanatics, there are many other potential antagonists that might be encouraged to strike in inventive ways now that America is clearly not omnipotent and invulnerable.

We have to move quickly and with deadly intent but weigh our actions carefully against reality and even our ideals as a nation. I strongly believe that allowing our faith in human rights, freedom and democracy to be abandoned abroad in favor of short-sighted economic goals is a contributing factor in bringing us to this point. We shouldn't exascerbate that or else we'll just be turning a serpent into a hydra.