USA Today has an article about Sony's plans for the PS2. There's some interesting stuff in it. Sony lost $112 million on the PS2 in just the third quarter of last year. They also have some kind of wacky wireless thing planned:

Sony is also banking on linking up with "i-mode," the cell phone Web service from NTT DoCoMo, hoping to tap into the 19 million I-mode users in Japan. A cord to link the I-mode phone to the game console allows users to browse I-mode sites � such as colorful graphics, restaurant guides and train schedules � as well as edit and read e-mail on a bigger TV screen linking with the PlayStation 2. The cable will start selling March 29 for 3,500 yen ($30).

The article also mentions that Sony expects that 370 games will come out during the fiscal year starting in April. In other words, there will be one new game a day for the PS2.

Once you factor in new games for Xbox, Gamecube, Dreamcast, Gameboy, and PC, we wonder how any publishers are going to make any money? Will there be enough customers for this avalanche of games? We expect to see quite a few game companies hurt by a glutted marketplace.

Well you have to realize that not all 370 games will be released in the same area of the world. Console releases in Japan are normally 50% higher than in anywhere else. Then factor in US and Europe only titles. Also a lot of those titles will not make it. Still you are right. The glut of products is a major problem.

Good points, Rob. Plus, when you consider that perhaps 10% of the games developed are actually popular enough to be purchased in large quantities and be "in demand," there probably won't be a whole lot more glut than there is now. There are lots of games out for any existing console, but most of them don't sell much.

Kinda makes me worry if they're spreading themselves too thin, though. Usually, it's better for companies to focus on one or two good quality games rather than trying to crank out ten crappy ones.

Just what I always wanted -- a cord for my cell phone!!

Well, 370 in a year isn't really all that rediculous for Japan (that's what they were talking about). I'm willing to bet there were that many PSOne games in 1999. Remember, 200 of those titles with be "Majong master 73" and "make a princess dating sim part 11" and whatnot. They've got quite a few cheapy serial games over there, too, where the sequel is released only a couple months after the first game.

I mean, there are 188 games available in Japan already. There are, what, 65 in the US?

How are publishers going to make money? Well, I wonder how many of those 370 titles are actually cross-platform games? Developing the same game for two systems doesn't nearly double development costs... if Tony Hawk 3 is out on three systems, it probably only costs 1.5x as much as putting it out there for one. Will the "shotgun publishing method" spread out the costs enough to make the business worthwhile?

Perhaps instead of making all these games, they should focus a bit more on putting out more systems, dontcha think? I STILL can't find one anywhere, damnit! Screw Sony!

Obviously the games are coming from just about everyone BUT Sony at this point. Sony's stuff has been absolutely horrible so far (Gameday, Gamebreaker, etc.). That's why everyone's using Sony as the scapegoat for their financials. It's easy when no one can get systems because they can't manufacture enough of them.

The thing that's going to kill a lot of PS2 game sales is the DVD movies. It's already a major problem. If they continue selling games at the extremely low ratio of 2 to 1 with systems, the game developers will be gone by next Christmas to one of the other consoles.

Jason's right about this number not being as high as you might think. There's at least 20 different Mahjongg games in a year along with the goofy dating stuff, cooking games, etc. If there were 370 slated for the US, it'd be different. At this point, there's probably a lot less games being targeted for PS2 than we think. Given the problems with manufacturing and development (too damn hard).

Charles Bellfield's comments in that GameWeek interview after Sega went multiplatform are very telling. His hinting around about Gamecube has me very excited for that system. No one really knows ANYTHING about the performance of it or its ease of development. It's also much safer for Japanese companies to support that box than a console born in the US. Xbox really doesn't stand a chance in Japan no matter what Microsoft's PR would have you believe.

--Dave

I've seen ps2 at Walmart, EB, and funco. I can't say I always find them there but I do run into quite a bit.

"The thing that's going to kill a lot of PS2 game sales is the DVD movies. It's already a major problem. If they continue selling games at the extremely low ratio of 2 to 1 with systems, the game developers will be gone by next Christmas to one of the other consoles."

Probably, but a lot depends on the sellthrough of the other systems. Sony thinks they'll have a sellthrough of 20 million systems at the end of fiscal 2001.

"Jason's right about this number not being as high as you might think. There's at least 20 different Mahjongg games in a year along with the goofy dating stuff, cooking games, etc. If there were 370 slated for the US, it'd be different. At this point, there's probably a lot less games being targeted for PS2 than we think. Given the problems with manufacturing and development (too damn hard)."

Well, it's not just the PS2 games. It's the PSX, DC, N64, GBC, GBA, Xbox, Gamecube, and PC games that will all be competing. Even someone who buys a PS2 probably has another system and may still pick up some titles for that as well.

"Charles Bellfield's comments in that GameWeek interview after Sega went multiplatform are very telling. His hinting around about Gamecube has me very excited for that system. No one really knows ANYTHING about the performance of it or its ease of development. It's also much safer for Japanese companies to support that box than a console born in the US. Xbox really doesn't stand a chance in Japan no matter what Microsoft's PR would have you believe."

Yeah, I wonder if Microsoft can compete in Japan also, especially if many of their Xbox games are going to be drawn from PC developers.

If Microsoft's smart, a good chunk of that $500 million earmarked for marketing should be handed to Square for an Xbox exclusive with some kind of Final Fantasy game. Those games are system sellers.

I think Microsoft is banking on US sales as the bulwark of their strategy for Xbox. I say this partly based on the controller, which is nicely sized for adult US hands but I hear too big for Japanese gamers, at least when compared to controllers like the DualShock 2. Also, Microsoft I think has a better chance of generating a warm and fuzzy feeling among US console buyers than Japanese fans, though I could definitely be wrong there.


So far Sony has sold, what, 9 or 10 million PS2s? That's too much market penetration for developers to ignore, especially considering Sony's track record in dominating the console market. The box is good, despite the problems, and even Sony's games are getting better--ATV Fury, from the Motocross Madness folks at Rainbow Studios, for example, is excellent.


What I'm curious to see is whether multiplatorm development has the negative effect on the industry that some think it will have. If everyone develops for everyone, no one will have any incentive to buy any particular console, and gamers will buy only the system with the best bang for the buck, leaving the others out in the cold. Given that console companies depend on licensing fees to offset hardware costs (they usually lose money or nearly so on the systems, I understand), multiplatform development that takes away the system selling exclusive licenses might well be disastrous.


Or so say folks like Nintendo, I hear. I don't know if it's accurate or not.

They have not sold 9 million ps2s. They haven't be able to make 9 million ps2s. The latest totals I've read are..
Japan: 4 million
US: 1.5 million
Europe: 1 million

Still your point is valid. I imagine they could sell 9 million if they were made.

The question remains, can a console dominated by US and Europe game makers become sucessful? We don't know. The last three consoles to try that were the Jaguar, 3DO, and CDI and all three tanked. However looking at the quality of titles on those systems we can understand why they tanked. Quality titles aren't going to be a problem for the Xbox. Also its possible the public is ready for a change.

I feel that the Xbox has an extremely good chance. However Microsoft could still blow it. Such as having the unit cost $400, not supply enough of them, have a weak opening library and so on.

This is exactly what I was talking about. Check out this link from FGN Online today.

Xbox Japan Delay Possible

Japanese developers just don't care. Konami has some major development studios here in the US. Sega does too. But as for the rest? Most aren't on these shores which means they're focused on their homeland. Sega's dropping of the Dreamcast, despite some decent US sales (and apparently a decent amount of interest especially evident since the price drop), shows that they are also focused on Japan first. If a Japanese company can't win at home, they can't win, period. They need that national pride to remain honorable among their peers.

Xbox is definitely not a source of national honor for a Japanese company.

Worse for Microsoft is that US consumers don't give a rat's ass anymore about where anything is made. Our ability to farm out any and all manufacturing to third world nations has reduced a proud claim of "Made in the USA" to meaningless rhetoric. However, in the land of the rising sun, pride as well as nationalism keeps them buying Japanese over any and all imports.

Microsoft better have some hellishly good games for Christmas, or it's all over but the shouting from the get go. Oh, wait, games don't matter anymore either, do they? Otherwise Dreamcast would be the runaway success so far. So they better make sure their 500 million in marketing is well spent here in the US!

--Dave

Microsoft has generated a lot of ill will in the US, so they won't have a free ride even in this market.

We should have a lot more Xbox information in a week or so when Gamestock happens. If they don't have a lot of actual gameplay to show off there, I'd think a launch this year is in jeporady.

Thing is, if they don't launch this year, that's really bad too. You don't want Sony to have the next Christmas season all to themselves. They'll build a lead that Microsoft and Nintendo can't possibly make up.

> Microsoft has generated a lot of ill will in the US, so they won't have a free ride even in this market.

I think it's a lot less than you think. The loud angry flood-the-net Slashdot types hate them, but when you're talking about selling 100 million systems over five years, you're talking about Joe Public. And they've demonstrated time and again that, like it or not, they'll buy Microsoft products over other brands.

If the games look hot, the public's hatred for the company will pay little role in actually stopping them from playing Halo or whatever.

Xbox and Japanese developers: I'm not so sure. What I hear out of Japan is some veiled comments about not being happy with PS2, Xbox being very interesting, and Gamecube being very interesting--but the latter two nobody has actually committed to yet or really started major work on. For every actual developer (not bean-counter at a publisher) that sounds excited about Gamecube, I see one excited about Xbox. Lots of the Sega guys are, and with all the times Microsoft and Square guys are seen toghether, that wouldn't surprise me either. Square and Nintendo kinda hate each other right now, so I don't think that's gonna happen. Big Square and Sega support could make a console a big hit in Japan alone.

The good Japanese developers have learned that the US is very important to their sales, and they won't discount that. Whichever console has the most momentum worldwide, they'll end up backing.

I think Gamestock might be a bit early to expect a lot of really playable games, since we're still 6-8 months from launch and developers don't have final XDKs yet. They want their games to be played as they'll look and sound and feel on the real console. I'd expect a few playables, a lot more game footage, and a handful of announcements. The same goes for Gamecube at TGS. I think both consoles will really show their playables at E3.

I'll be curious what Microsoft shows at Gamestock, assuming I can get there without being snowed in... we're supposed to get ANOTHER storm this weekend. Criminy.